Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Social Security and Medicare Simplified

From our resident artist Jorge (who intends on drawing several more political cartoons)


Why Big Oil Should 86 Their CSR Departments

"and replace them with me."

Language warning:


Looking for Writers

Howdy All,

Alex is looking to hire more writers as the fall semester gets into mid-terms and ultimately finals season.  If you're interested in picking up a little extra cash and would like a job without a commute, contact him below:

Aleksey Bashtavenko
Academic Composition
Owner & Principal Writer
(540) 300-1253
academiccomposition@gmail.com
www.academiccomposition.com
www.linkedin.com/pub/aleksey-bashtavenko/25/7b8/323/
 
Thank you,
 
Cappy 

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

The Deflationary Spiral is a Lie

Rick Newman at Yahoo *COUGH COUGH WHEEZE WHEEZE* "News" wrote a piece recently about the horrors and catastrophes of "deflation."

Yes, this economic scourge is so dangerous, so devastating that people unfortunate enough to experience it suffer:

Higher standards of living
An increase in the value of their money
Increased purchasing power
and
a stable currency

Sarcasm aside, you don't need to be an economist to figure out that the "deflationary spiral" is a Keynesian canard because the WHOLE POINT OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIETAL ADVANCEMENT IS TO MAKE THINGS CHEAPER!  It's the SOLE PURPOSE of economics.  Increasing standards of living through efficiency.  So already you know when somebody warns about the "horrors" of "deflation," you know they're either

1.  An ignorant journalist who doesn't know jack about economics or
2.  A politician or political operative trying to dupe you

(Mr. Newman is the first, despite his degree in economics, which was no doubt dripping with Keynesianism)

However, this simple logic to find out if believers in the Deflationary Spiral are devils or dupes, does not expressly explain or disprove their claims.  That claim being that deflation lowers demand by delaying purchases as people "know" prices are going down and simply postpone those purchases indefinitely into the future.  And while it may seem logical on the face of it, that's all it is - logical.  Not empirical.

First, in order to believe the Deflationary Spiral exists you have to believe that Americans are financially conscious and savvy enough to know about prices, inflation, etc.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?????

The average American doesn't even know who's in congress or where Canada is, let alone what the CPI is doing!!!!  They are so stupid and so doped up on bread and circus BS that the last thing they're doing is reading Federal Reserve minutes.  They are the most economically ignorant population in the history of humanity (but they're experts in the Kardashians and ESPN post game shows).

Second, since the average American is clueless about finances and economics, they spend money like...well...Americans.  They save practically nothing,



 and (despite enormous debt forgiveness during the financial crisis) have managed to rack up cumulative household debt back above 100% GDP.

Third, Americans lack the capacity for delayed gratification.  In the now now now me me me mine mine mine society, nobody is conscious, let alone psychologically capable of budgeting, conserving or postponing purchases.

And finally, women.  (Yes, sorry, we're going there, because it's germane and true).  Depending on what statistics you want to use, women account for anywhere between 55-80% of all household purchases.  And most of them are on worthless and unneeded trinkets and crap.  I have NEVER, EVER heard a woman utter "deflationary spiral" because it has never occurred to a newly wed wife to postpone purchases of curtains for her new home, a power tripping NYC marketing executive to postpone purchases of her Pravda shoes, or a naive and clueless college student to postpone the purchase of her $200,000 "Masters in Latina Transgendered Anthropologic Poetry Unicorn Studies."

But the ultimate argument against the Deflationary Spiral is simply one of empircism.

It does not exist.

While I know economists, journalists, politicians, and everyday sheeple just like to repeat things they heard in college or the news, it doesn't make them true.  And if you look at spending versus inflation, THERE IS NO RELATIONSHIP.

This chart shows the velocity of money (the rate at which a dollar is spent and re-spent, indicating demand).  It is juxtaposed against inflation.  To the untrained eye you might be tempted to detect a pattern or relationship between the two, and according to the Deflationary Spiral believers as prices go down you should see a decrease in the velocity of money.




















However, THERE IS NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO.  When correlated against one another the correlation coefficient is -.04, meaning no relationship at all.
















Naturally, I don't expect my little blog here, let alone this little post to correct the thousands of erroneous pages in economic textbooks.  I don't expect this FACT to change politicians' or journalists' thinking (or incentives).  And I doubt that anybody at the Federal Reserve will remove their lips from Keynes' dead ass long enough to consider this data.  But I do expect my readers and anybody who really cares about politics and economics to know the Deflationary Spiral just doesn't exist.  And that the next time you hear somebody trying to "scare-tactic" you using the "Deflationary Spiral" to know it's a calculated political move to allow for more government debt and printing of money.

Monday, October 20, 2014

A Job for Some of Youse Guys

Our sponsor Academic Composition is looking to hire.  Contact Alex if you think you'd be interested.

Do you live in California and are you looking to make a little extra cash?
There is no easier way to do this than to post flyers on college campuses
and collect a five dollar bonus for each person who will order an essay
with Academic Composition. All of your traveling expenses will be covered
and you will be paid per hour to hand out flyers.

This is the middle of mid-terms and California campuses are teeming with
fratboys and sorority sisters who have no business being there. To be sure,
they'd much rather pay to have their 20 page screed on feminism or
environmentalism written for them than lift a finger to do it on their own.
Besides, who could blame them for skipping out on such preposterous
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Email us at academiccomposition@gmail.com to get started, we'll have more
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Aleksey Bashtavenko
Academic Composition
Owner & Principal Writer
(540) 300-1253
academiccomposition@gmail.com
www.academiccomposition.com
www.linkedin.com/pub/aleksey-bashtavenko/25/7b8/323/

The Clarey Podcast #67

Aaron is bribed again not to curse this podcast...and sort of succeeds
The joys of working security
How to deal with older co-workers and supervisors, career advice from Cappy
Who the Captain wants to run for president
Fan mail from a man who headed up a Special Ed department for 15 years
A mom busted for dealing heroin is considered "A great mom" by her sister
Um NO, the Republicans and Democrats are not "all the same."
And the Troll of the Weak who thinks it's "hard" majoring in English!

And MORE in this episode of The Clarey Podcast.

Direct MP3 download located here.

If you'd like to help the show make your Amazon purchases here!

Making Money Off of Stupid People

This was quite predictable.

Another Book Babe

A southern belle sent in a pic. 


Sunday, October 19, 2014

Lazy Sunday Linkage

The most depressing podcast ever from The Black Brigade.

1950's grade distribution at Princeton.

Obama's crony czar won't start the made up position for his crony job for 5-6 months.

Parents can pay for their childrens' college, but can't find out about their grades.

Daddy, what's a Social Justice Warrior?  Well...they're scum, son.  Just verminous scum.

The 1950's were better because of the people, not that they needed only one income.

Oh noesies!!!  Eliteist book publishers are being destroyed by Amazon.  Oh noesssss!!!!!

Saturday, October 18, 2014

"I'm On Birth Control" *WINK*

Stay frosty, boys.

Stay the freak frosty.

Gotta Love Large Liberal Cities

Another reason not to live in Chicago.

However, given traffic, it's nearly impossible to speed, let alone go the speed limit in the town.

Friday, October 17, 2014

What Ebola Tells Us About Obama

Wake the fuck up people.




Related

What Batman Teaches Us About Agency, Morality, and Life

I was paid to do a movie review of "The Dark Knight Returns 1&2."  Ended up being a much deeper and philosophical movie than I thought it would be (given it's animation).  Regardless, some of the lessons pulled from it may be of benefit or use to you lieutenants, economists, and Cappy Cappites.  It's a longer video and yes, some minor cursing.


Thursday, October 16, 2014

Today's Self Employed Office Brought to You In Part By

Taleo Brass Ring - Yes, we know you gave us your resume.  Yes, we know we have parsing technology.  But we want to see if you'll jump through these hoops like a good little monkey so we know we can take advantage of you later.  Taleo Brass Ring, making life hell for job seekers.

and by

Diversity Training - Do you do your job well?  Do you work hard and produce?  Do you go that extra mile?  Well fuck you, you're still a racist sexist!  And we're going to remind you every year.  Diversity training, treating adults like children because socialists need to brainwash you.

and by

Meetings - Yes, you have important work to do, but we need you to sit in a room while middle aged incompetents blather and act like they're leaders.  Sit there, be quiet and listen to things that have nothing to do with your job, all while wasting precious time that could be used to expedite your job.  By the way, you need to come in on the weekend to make up for this lost labor.  "Meetings" - it's how idiots manage!

Anyway, just wanted to show you guys my office view today:





























Oh, and for any of my ex bosses, please feel free to post what the view looks like from your office!  I love pictures of cubicles and parking lots!

Please Stop Begging for Higher Rates of Return

A common question I get in my "alternative" financial life style is

"How can I get a higher rate of return on my investments?"

People are sick of the barely existent interest rates on their checking or savings accounts.  People don't like the rates on T-Bills or government bonds.  And people are also tired of the whopping 3-5% on high quality corporate bonds.

Isn't there ANYWHERE I can get a better return?  Why, I need my 401k to magically constantly forever unabattedly perpetually infinitely grow at 10% in order to retire at 62!

The charlatans come in and say "stocks."

But let me beat this dead horse one more time in case you didn't get it the first 40 times.

What is the REAL rate of return of stocks?  And when I say REAL I mean what kind of income do stocks generate?  I know everybody has formed a circle jerk around capital gains and believe that magically constantly forever unabattedly perpetually infinitely increasing stock prices will solve everybody's problem, but what drives those capital gains?  What gives stocks their value?

The answer is -dividends.

It's not "earnings" because ultimately a life long share holder never SEES all the earnings.  They are ONLY paid dividends (and a final cash out should the company be acquired or their shares be purchased), but even that final cash out is dependent upon the future dividends those acquired assets will generate.

So what "rate of return" are stocks truly providing?  What is the real "interest rate" you are earning on stocks?

Well my fine 401k Zombie Lemmings, here it is:





















I strongly recommend you plan on working till you're 75.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

The Real, Statistical, Factual Causes of the US Deficit and Debt

A very common and very KEY argument I came across when debating the left is the true and underlying causes of the national deficit, and by consequence, national debt.  Those of us on the right claim it is excessive social spending, those on the left insist it is military spending.  After studying the budget and public finances tangentially, I intuitively knew it had to be social spending.  BUT, I did not know for a fact.  And so I decided to spend my coffee session pulling data from the White House's federal budget data and FRED database to find out, once and for all, what are the true causes of our national deficit/debt.

The issue is not as straight forward as one might thing.  For example, how far back do we go?  1790?  Post WWII?  What percentage of today's debt is caused by which years of deficit the government has run.  In the best efforts of intellectual honesty I looked at the historical "deficits as a percentage of GDP" aiming to find when we started running chronic and serious budget deficits.  I also went post WWII because of the obvious warping effects a global war has on budgets.  And I also chose post WWII because adjusting for inflation and population growth (ie - the majority of today's debt was caused by more recent society, not the 10 million people that lived here 200 years ago).

This resulted in a starting point of 1971.  If you look at deficits as a percentage of GDP it was 1971 that start not only chronic, but significant deficits (and it is here, no doubt, leftists will focus their arguments because the math henceforth is unassailable).

However, before we move forward it is imperative that I issue a trigger warning for any socialists, leftists or democrats reading this.  The following information is factual, math based, and real.  I know these things cause great stress, emotional harm, and psychological damage to leftsits, not to mention are insulting to the leftist community.  If you could have your government-paid therapist or counselor on speed dial, that may help before continuing reading through this article.

So here is the basic data.  The sum of all government spending, by general department from 1971 to 2014, along with their corresponding percentages.























You'll note standard battle lines to be drawn as libertarians and conservatives cite Social Security as being larger than Military spending.  You'll also note the left immediately (and predictably) pointing out "Veterans Affairs" is not included in military spending.  However, the above data needs to be simplified as there are multiple accounts across the general two categories that are being debated as to the cause of our chronic deficits and debt - Military spending and Social spending.  I simplified this chart into four categories.

1.  Social spending
2.  Military spend
3.  Governance (which is appallingly low) and
4. "Other" (where it wasn't governance, social spending, or military.  Namely space agency)

The results confirm what nearly 2 decades of research and common sense would tell you - social spending is by far to blame for the deficits and debt we have today.








But before leftists now scramble to find an excuse (or call their therapist) to explain this reality away, let's us hold on before taking that step and address a tangential issue to this debate that may solve it for both sides - psychology.

You see, in the early days of this blog (and my career) I naively spend hours, if not months, crunching numbers, calculating statistics, and doing so in an intellectually honest manner because I truthfully was concerned about what was truth.  I did not want to have an ideology or a political position and then "force" data to fit my preferences.  I wanted the facts and data to form my political ideology.  However, when presenting data, such as the above, to those on the left, no matter how right it was, no matter how solid and unbiased my ideology, and no matter how apolitical the data was, people on the left simply refused to believe it.

It soon dawned on me the true debate between right and left is not one of facts, data, statistics or reality, but one of psychology.  The left is delusional and puts their religion above all else, including reality.

Therefore, let us cut to the chase.  I know I just wasted the past hour crunching numbers, making charts, and uploading them here.  I know this is going to be as effective as DayQuil on cancer.  So my question to the left is NOT "will you please finally admit you were wrong."  It's going to be;

"Please humor me and entertain me with the mentally ill and cognitive dissonance acrobatics your going to use to explain away this one.  I always get a kick out of watching mentally damaged people ignore reality."

Enjoy that freaking decline.

Monday, October 13, 2014

The Clarey Podcast Episode #66 - "The Stalker Paradox"

Asking girls out before cell phones
"The Stalker Paradox" and flaking out in the 90's
"She got hit by a truck" aka "The Night Cappy Was Stood Up"
Troll of the Weak exposes herself through shaming language
The pen IS mightier than the sword
It's better to lie than be called an "ist"
How minorities should be lynching the left for how they're ruined their lives

AND MORE!

In this episode of The Clarey Podcast.

Also remember the podcast is available in iTunes and Stitcher.

And for all you Apple users, for some reason people who also have their podcast on iTunes keep asking to "vote up" their podcast on iTunes.  I don't know what that is, I'm sure there's some benefit, so if you'd be so kind, I'd appreciate it.

Truth Cannot Be "Sexist" Nor "Racist"

What I always get a kick out of (and more or less how I make my living) is how merely speaking the truth will get you accused of all sorts of "ists."  I'm already 60% dead and will not waste my remaining life living lies or abiding by them.  I've already danced around politically incorrect eggshells for far too long.  So I find it very cute, but intellectually conflicting when people claim merely speaking the truth is "sexist" or "racist."

This otherwise fine review of BPE is one such an example. 

"I’m going to have to agree that there are a few things Aaron writes about that are sexist. However what his critics don’t address is the more important issue of whether or not what he writes is true."

So am I to understand that the Victim Industry and Politically Correct Nazis have been so successful in brainwashing people that it is better to LIE than to speak the truth?  It's scary that people's logic are so preprogrammed this way that it is better to lie than to be considered sexist or bigotted, etc.

Let me tell you the path this is going down.

When people start telling lies, believing in lies, and (worst of all) making decisions based in lies, society begins to falter.  Growth falters, standards of living decrease, nearly every aspect of life will get worse because you're NOT living in the real world. What's worse is that people would prefer to hear pretty lies than harsh truths, and this gives genuinely evil people, posing as politicians, carte blanche to tell you whatever they want, and whatever you want to hear, so they can score your naive vote.

You people wonder why economic growth is 1/2 of what it used to be?
You people wonder why you can't find jobs?
You people wonder why there's a national debt 105% GDP?
You people wonder why after trillions spent on "The Great Society" women still earn only 77% of what men do and black's standards of living have not closed the gap with whites?

Well how about you grow a fucking spine and start accepting, living with, and basing your decisions in....(GASP!!!!)

reality.

Enjoy the decline, boys and girls.  Enjoy the freaking decline.